Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.290231 0.340100 0.394437 0.457845 0.529599 0.608071 0.700168
2025-04-27 0.207961 0.269331 0.341728 0.432717 0.543234 0.672306 0.833563
2025-05-04 0.155320 0.221916 0.306740 0.421038 0.569146 0.752549 0.994526
2025-05-11 0.115897 0.183233 0.275926 0.409710 0.594187 0.835543 1.170367
2025-05-18 0.080665 0.142534 0.235142 0.378783 0.589847 0.881590 1.306716
2025-05-25 0.054523 0.108714 0.197386 0.345541 0.577615 0.916221 1.433630
2025-06-01 0.039252 0.088322 0.175922 0.333009 0.594086 0.994148 1.631868
2025-06-08 0.027868 0.071302 0.156184 0.319644 0.607620 1.070264 1.837932
2025-06-15 0.021491 0.062099 0.148382 0.325545 0.654067 1.203823 2.147680
2025-06-22 0.014503 0.048606 0.128635 0.305577 0.653200 1.261793 2.346291
2025-06-29 0.010045 0.039171 0.114596 0.293668 0.665096 1.343021 2.592644
2025-07-06 0.006785 0.031183 0.101250 0.280127 0.671761 1.416299 2.834287
2025-07-13 0.004911 0.026533 0.095058 0.282147 0.712287 1.560226 3.222174
2025-07-20 0.003379 0.021888 0.087150 0.278372 0.740712 1.686240 3.593510
2025-07-27 0.002415 0.018716 0.082339 0.281360 0.785028 1.849434 4.051714
2025-08-03 0.001688 0.015863 0.077325 0.282675 0.826306 2.012455 4.527399
2025-08-10 0.001010 0.012206 0.067532 0.267656 0.826379 2.091559 4.850589
2025-08-17 0.000557 0.009057 0.057621 0.248908 0.813540 2.141954 5.123059
2025-08-24 0.000343 0.007335 0.052653 0.244423 0.837019 2.275119 5.577349
2025-08-31 0.000201 0.005850 0.047690 0.238278 0.855029 2.398542 6.023823
2025-09-07 0.000139 0.005194 0.046698 0.246504 0.915450 2.627576 6.715107
2025-09-14 0.000069 0.003911 0.040813 0.233630 0.911936 2.704924 7.086376
2025-09-21 0.000035 0.003060 0.036751 0.226533 0.924504 2.822961 7.557991